Working paper · 2024
Impact of 2023 on the International Relations Environment and Projections for 2024
Original Spanish titleImpacto de 2023 en el entorno de las Relaciones Internacionales y proyecciones para 2024
Bernardo Gortaire Morejón. Impacto de 2023 en el entorno de las Relaciones Internacionales y proyecciones para 2024. Centro de Estudios y Pensamiento Estratégico, ESPE, 2024.
Summary
I review the interconnected geopolitical, social, economic, technological, and environmental risks observed in 2023 and assess their implications for 2024. I prioritise scenario assessment, contingency planning, and long-term state capacity rather than offering a formal probabilistic forecast.
Research topics
- international relations 2024
- strategic foresight
- global risks
- contingency planning